About this book:

*Reimagining Europe: Scenarios for the Union in 2035* provides a comprehensive foresight analysis of the European Union’s trajectory over the next decade. The book establishes a 2026 baseline characterized by geopolitical instability following the war in Ukraine, demographic aging, and an accelerating green and digital transition. It argues that Europe’s future will be defined by its ability to navigate "megatrends"—specifically the pressures of a shrinking workforce, the escalating costs of climate adaptation, and the intense global race for supremacy in artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

The core of the text explores the systemic shifts required to maintain European competitiveness and security. It details the evolution of "Strategic Autonomy," moving from a political slogan to a practical framework for securing supply chains, energy independence, and digital public infrastructure. The analysis covers a wide array of policy sectors, from the modernization of the Common Agricultural Policy into a stewardship contract to the integration of health systems and the "renaissance" of rail and clean aviation. Throughout, the book emphasizes that European agency—the capacity to decide collectively on investment and regulation—is the primary determinant of the continent's resilience.

The book culminates in three distinct scenario narratives for 2035. "Deeper Integration" envisions a highly networked Union that has successfully pooled sovereignty to unlock economic scale and technological agility. Conversely, "Fragmentation" describes a patchwork Europe where national interests reassert themselves, leading to a fraying single market and a loss of global influence. The third path, "Strategic Autonomy," presents a pragmatic middle ground focused on "coalitions of capability," where the Union prioritizes resilient options and calibrated interdependence without requiring total federal unity.

Ultimately, the work serves as a strategic manual for policymakers, offering "no-regrets" moves and signposts to track which future is unfolding. It concludes that while the "ever closer union" remains a contested ideal, the practical necessity of managing a multipolar and volatile world is driving Europe toward a more sophisticated, albeit complex, form of shared sovereignty. The book asserts that Europe’s survival depends on transforming its internal diversity from a source of friction into a strategic advantage.

What You'll Find Inside:

• Three distinct scenarios for Europe's future to 2035: deeper integration, fragmentation, and strategic autonomy, each with decision points, trade-offs, and policy levers
• Analysis of four megatrends shaping Europe: demography, climate change, technological advancement, and shifting global power dynamics
• Examination of critical European systems including the single market, euro, energy security, defense capabilities, and digital public infrastructure
• Methodology combining scenario planning, expert essays, and policy simulations to stress-test strategies across multiple futures
• Practical tools for decision-makers including observable signposts to track unfolding futures and no-regrets policy moves robust across scenarios

Who's It For:

This book is designed for strategic planners, policymakers, and institutional leaders who need to navigate Europe's complex future. It will particularly benefit those in government agencies, EU institutions, national ministries, and international organizations responsible for long-term strategy in areas like economic policy, security, climate, and technological innovation. Think tank researchers and academics focusing on European affairs will find the scenario framework valuable for analysis and forecasting. Educators can also utilize the policy simulations as experiential learning tools for workshops and classroom exercises on European governance and strategic decision-making under uncertainty.