Reimagining Europe: Scenarios for the Union in 2035

• Introduction
• Chapter 1 Taking Stock: Europe’s Baseline in 2026 and Horizons to 2035
• Chapter 2 How We Look Ahead: Scenario Planning, Expert Essays, and Policy Simulations
• Chapter 3 Megatrends Shaping the Union: Demography, Climate, Technology, and Power Shifts
• Chapter 4 Political Currents: Party Systems, Populism, and Democratic Innovation
• Chapter 5 The Economic Engine: Productivity, Inequality, and the Green Transition
• Chapter 6 Technology Trajectories: AI, Quantum, Cybersecurity, and the Digital Single Market
• Chapter 7 Security and Defense: NATO, EU Capabilities, and Hybrid Threats
• Chapter 8 Energy and Climate Policy: From the Green Deal to Net-Zero Delivery
• Chapter 9 Migration and Demography: Aging Societies, Skills, and Social Cohesion
• Chapter 10 Institutions at a Crossroads: Treaty Change, Veto Reform, and Multi-Speed Europe
• Chapter 11 Single Market 2.0: Services, Data, and Capital Markets Union
• Chapter 12 The Euro in 2035: Fiscal Rules, Banking Union, and the Digital Euro
• Chapter 13 Strategic Autonomy Revisited: Industry Policy, Supply Chains, and Tradecraft
• Chapter 14 Wider Europe: Enlargement, Neighborhoods, and the Future of the Continent
• Chapter 15 Great-Power Geometry: Transatlantic Ties, China, and the Global South
• Chapter 16 Regions and Cities: Cohesion, Smart Territories, and Place-Based Growth
• Chapter 17 Digital Public Infrastructure: eID, Cloud, Payments, and Interoperability
• Chapter 18 Food, Water, and Land: The Next Common Agricultural Policy
• Chapter 19 Health and Societal Resilience: Systems, Supply Chains, and Preparedness
• Chapter 20 Knowledge for Competitiveness: Education, Research, and Innovation
• Chapter 21 Information Ecosystems: Media Pluralism, Platforms, and Disinformation
• Chapter 22 Mobility and Infrastructure: TEN-T, Rail Renaissance, and Clean Aviation
• Chapter 23 Scenario A — Deeper Integration: An Ever Closer and Smarter Union
• Chapter 24 Scenario B — Fragmentation: A Patchwork of Competing Priorities
• Chapter 25 Scenario C — Strategic Autonomy: A Coalition of Capabilities

Europe stands at a hinge moment. The choices taken in the late 2020s will reverberate through 2035, reshaping how the Union governs, competes, protects, and cooperates. Geopolitical shocks, accelerating technologies, and a changing climate are converging with demographic and fiscal pressures. In such conditions, linear forecasts fail. This book proposes a disciplined way to think about multiple futures for Europe—futures that are plausible, decision-relevant, and actionable.

Reimagining Europe: Scenarios for the Union in 2035 is not a book of predictions; it is a book of preparations. It offers three distinct yet interrelated pathways: deeper integration that unlocks scale and agility; fragmentation that fractures capabilities and solidarity; and strategic autonomy that builds coalitions of capability within and beyond formal institutions. Each pathway is developed as a scenario narrative, grounded in evidence and enriched by expert essays that illuminate sectoral dynamics—from defense and digital infrastructure to health systems and agriculture.

Our approach blends classic scenario planning with policy simulations. We map certainties and critical uncertainties, construct contrasting yet coherent worlds, and then subject key policy choices to stress tests across those worlds. Throughout, we draw on a network of practitioners and scholars to surface tacit knowledge, institutional constraints, and political economy realities. The intent is practical: to help strategic planners, think tanks, and policymakers pressure-test portfolios, spot early signals, and design adaptive strategies.

The book is organized to move from context to choice. Early chapters establish the 2026 baseline and the megatrends shaping Europe’s outlook to 2035. The core of the book analyzes political, economic, and technological systems that will determine Europe’s room for maneuver: the single market, the euro, energy security, defense, and digital public infrastructure. The final chapters present the scenarios themselves, articulating decision points, trade-offs, and policy levers. Each scenario concludes with signposts—observable indicators that help readers track which future may be unfolding—and with no‑regrets moves that are robust across futures.

Readers can use this volume in multiple ways. Decision-makers may begin with the scenarios and work backward to stress-test current strategies. Analysts may prefer to start with the methodological chapters to replicate or adapt the framework. Educators can deploy the policy simulations as classroom or workshop exercises, enabling participants to rehearse decisions under uncertainty. Across these uses, the goal is the same: to improve readiness by expanding the range of considered futures and clarifying the consequences of choice.

We write with humility. The future resists neat extrapolation, and every scenario is a provisional map. Assumptions can and should be challenged; parameters can be updated as conditions shift. For that reason, we have been transparent about methodological steps, data sources, and the areas where judgments were necessary. The method is designed to be repeatable and revisable, enabling institutions to refresh the scenarios as new evidence accumulates.

Above all, this is a book about European agency. The Union’s trajectory to 2035 will be shaped not only by external forces but by the capacity to decide—collectively and credibly—on investment, regulation, and solidarity. By moving from foresight to strategy, and from strategy to execution, Europe can navigate turbulence and turn uncertainty into a source of advantage. The pages that follow invite you to imagine, test, and prepare for the futures that matter.

As we stand in 2026, Europe presents a complex tapestry of resilience and vulnerability, innovation and inertia. The echoes of recent crises—the lingering economic tremors from the pandemic, the seismic shifts brought by the war in Ukraine, and the accelerating pace of climate change—are still reverberating across the continent. Yet, amidst these challenges, there's a palpable sense of renewed purpose, a strategic recalibration born from necessity. The baseline of 2026 is less a solid foundation and more a dynamic landscape, constantly shifting beneath our feet, demanding continuous adaptation from policymakers and citizens alike.

The geopolitical landscape, arguably more than any other factor, has profoundly shaped Europe's present reality. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 served as a brutal awakening, shattering long-held illusions of perpetual peace on the continent. This aggression fundamentally altered Europe's security paradigm, prompting a significant re-evaluation of defense spending, energy dependencies, and strategic alliances. NATO, once questioned by some, found renewed vigor and purpose, with Sweden and Finland’s accession bolstering its northern flank and underscoring a collective commitment to security. The EU, in turn, demonstrated remarkable unity and speed in imposing sanctions and providing unprecedented support to Ukraine, signaling a maturation of its foreign policy capabilities. This period saw the strengthening of transatlantic ties, even as Europe sought to articulate its own distinct voice on the global stage.

Economically, Europe in 2026 is a continent grappling with the aftermath of inflation and the imperative of a green transition. While the immediate post-pandemic inflationary surge has largely subsided, price stability remains a central concern for the European Central Bank. Supply chain vulnerabilities, exposed during the pandemic and exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, have prompted a push for strategic autonomy in key sectors, from microchips to pharmaceuticals. The ambitious European Green Deal, launched in 2019, continues to drive significant investment in renewable energy, sustainable transport, and circular economy initiatives. This transition, while essential for long-term sustainability, presents considerable short-term challenges, including financing vast infrastructure projects, managing job displacement in traditional industries, and ensuring a just transition for all regions and social groups. The energy crisis spurred by the war in Ukraine, while painful, also accelerated Europe's pivot away from fossil fuels, particularly Russian gas, marking a significant, albeit costly, turning point.

Technologically, 2026 sees Europe striving to keep pace with global leaders in the digital sphere. While boasting a strong research and development base and world-class universities, concerns persist about the continent’s ability to scale up innovative startups and translate scientific breakthroughs into market-leading products and services. The race for supremacy in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced biotechnology is intense, with both the United States and China investing heavily. Europe’s regulatory framework, particularly the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the Digital Services Act (DSA), has established a global benchmark for digital governance, prioritizing user rights and platform accountability. However, the challenge remains to foster an environment that simultaneously encourages innovation and upholds European values. The digital single market, a long-standing aspiration, is still a work in progress, with barriers remaining to the free flow of data and digital services across national borders.

Socially, demographic shifts continue to exert profound pressure on European societies. An aging population across most member states presents significant challenges to pension systems, healthcare provision, and labor markets. While immigration has historically played a role in mitigating these trends, managing migration flows remains a highly sensitive political issue, often fueling populist narratives and societal divisions. Integration of new arrivals, skills mismatches, and the equitable distribution of social services are ongoing concerns. However, there's also a growing recognition of the demographic dividend that skilled migrants can offer, particularly in sectors facing labor shortages. Social cohesion, tested by economic anxieties and cultural differences, remains a critical focus for policymakers seeking to strengthen the fabric of European societies.

Politically, Europe in 2026 is navigating a complex interplay of national interests and supranational ambitions. While the immediate post-Brexit era saw the EU demonstrate remarkable resilience and unity, internal debates persist regarding the optimal level of integration, the balance of power between member states and institutions, and the future of the eurozone. Populist movements, though having faced some setbacks, remain a significant force in several countries, often capitalizing on public anxieties about globalization, immigration, and the perceived democratic deficit of European institutions. The European Parliament, with its increased powers, continues to be a crucial arena for democratic debate and legislative oversight, though voter turnout in European elections often lags behind national polls. Discussions around treaty reform, qualified majority voting, and the concept of a multi-speed Europe are ongoing, reflecting a desire to adapt the Union's institutional framework to contemporary challenges without alienating any member state.

Looking ahead to 2035, the horizons are both challenging and full of potential. The megatrends of demography, climate change, technological advancement, and shifting global power dynamics will intensify, demanding proactive and adaptive responses from Europe. The continent's ability to navigate these forces will hinge on its capacity for collective action, its willingness to embrace innovation, and its commitment to its foundational values. The choices made in the coming years regarding economic competitiveness, strategic autonomy, social cohesion, and democratic resilience will profoundly shape the Europe of tomorrow.

The global order by 2035 is projected to be even more multipolar and contested than it is today. The rise of China as a global economic and military power, the resurgence of geopolitical competition, and the fragmentation of international institutions will create a more turbulent external environment for Europe. Maintaining strategic relationships with traditional allies, particularly the United States, while simultaneously engaging with emerging powers and protecting its own interests, will be a delicate balancing act. Europe's role as a normative power, championing multilateralism, human rights, and environmental protection, will be increasingly challenged in a world where power politics often trump shared values.

Within the EU, the single market will continue to be the engine of economic prosperity, but its evolution will be critical. Deepening the capital markets union, fostering a truly digital single market, and addressing remaining barriers to the free movement of services will be essential for boosting competitiveness and innovation. The euro, having weathered various storms, will need robust fiscal frameworks and a completed banking union to ensure its long-term stability and resilience against future economic shocks. The prospect of a digital euro, currently under exploration, could further revolutionize payments and financial services, presenting both opportunities and regulatory challenges.

The green transition will undoubtedly accelerate by 2035, driven by both regulatory mandates and technological advancements. Europe's ability to meet its ambitious climate targets will depend on sustained investment in renewable energy infrastructure, energy efficiency measures, and the development of breakthrough technologies in areas like carbon capture and green hydrogen. The social implications of this transition, including its impact on employment, regional economies, and consumer prices, will require careful management to ensure broad public support and avoid exacerbating existing inequalities.

Technological progress, particularly in artificial intelligence, will transform almost every aspect of life by 2035. Europe’s approach to AI, balancing innovation with ethical considerations and robust regulatory frameworks, will be crucial. The deployment of AI across industries, from healthcare to manufacturing, promises significant productivity gains but also raises concerns about job displacement, algorithmic bias, and the concentration of power in the hands of a few tech giants. Cybersecurity threats will continue to escalate in sophistication and frequency, demanding continuous investment in defensive capabilities and international cooperation.

Finally, the question of Europe's institutional architecture and its capacity for effective decision-making will remain central. Debates about qualified majority voting, the right of veto, and the possibility of a multi-speed Europe are not merely academic; they touch upon the very essence of how the Union functions and its ability to respond to future challenges with agility and cohesion. By 2035, the pressure to reform and streamline decision-making processes will likely intensify, particularly if the Union contemplates further enlargement. The ongoing push for a "Europe that protects" will necessitate a continuous strengthening of common policies in areas like security, defense, and public health, moving beyond mere coordination towards genuinely shared capabilities and responsibilities. The baseline of 2026, therefore, is not a static point but rather a launching pad, from which Europe must embark on a journey of continuous adaptation, strategic foresight, and resolute action to shape its destiny in the decade ahead.