Enlargement or Impasse: The Politics of EU Expansion and the Western Balkans MTA
A strategic examination of the stalled enlargement process and practical pathways to integration

About this book:

"Enlargement or Impasse" comprehensively analyzes the stalled European Union enlargement process in the Western Balkans, arguing that a renewed, credible approach is essential for the region's stability and the EU's geopolitical standing. The book critiques the traditional "box-ticking" method of conditionality, advocating for a "Conditionality 2.0" that prioritizes measurable outcomes and demonstrable "track records" of reform, particularly in the foundational areas of rule of law, democratic institutions, and public administration. It emphasizes that superficial legislative alignment is insufficient without genuine implementation and enforcement against deeply entrenched issues like corruption and state capture.

The book delves into the multifaceted challenges faced by Western Balkan aspirants, including the need for judicial independence, robust anti-corruption efforts, and the protection of media freedom and civic space. It also examines economic convergence, stressing the imperative for functioning market economies capable of withstanding EU competitive pressures, alongside significant infrastructure development and alignment with the EU's ambitious Green Deal. Geopolitical influences from Russia, China, Turkey, and Gulf states are highlighted as critical factors, compelling the EU to re-emphasize security alignment, including adherence to CFSP/CSDP and sanctions, to prevent strategic vacuums.

Crucially, the text scrutinizes the roles of EU institutions and member states, noting how the Council's unanimity requirement can lead to political blockades driven by domestic interests or bilateral disputes. It explores the complexities of regional cooperation initiatives like CEFTA, the Berlin Process, and Open Balkan, stressing their importance for reconciliation and preparing the region for the Single Market. The book also addresses vital societal issues such as social policy, youth prospects, and brain drain, arguing that a credible pathway to integration must offer tangible benefits that resonate with citizens and retain human capital.

Finally, the book proposes a "Practical Agenda for 2026–2030," outlining three scenarios for the region's future: Fast-Track, Gradualism, or Freeze. It advocates for a fast-track approach, driven by intensified political commitment from the EU and uncompromising reforms from the Western Balkans. This agenda includes providing clearer benchmarks, offering phased integration and staged membership models to provide tangible benefits before full accession, and fostering robust domestic ownership of reforms. The overarching message is that restoring credibility to the enlargement process is not merely a bureaucratic exercise, but a strategic imperative to secure Europe's future.

What You'll Find Inside:

• The rule of law as the non-negotiable foundation for EU integration, requiring independent judiciaries, effective anti-corruption measures, and dismantling state capture in the Western Balkans
• How geopolitical competition from Russia, China, Turkey, and Gulf states creates both challenges and opportunities for Western Balkan countries' EU alignment
• The evolution from formal compliance to Conditionality 2.0 focusing on measurable outcomes like corruption conviction rates and judicial efficiency
• The decisive role of EU member states' domestic politics, vetoes, and coalitions in determining the pace of enlargement
• Practical pathways including phased integration, staged membership, and credible benchmarks to restart the stalled process by 2030

Who's It For:

This book is essential reading for EU policymakers, Western Balkan government officials, and enlargement negotiators seeking to understand and overcome the current impasse in the accession process. It also serves scholars and researchers of European integration who need a comprehensive analysis of the political, institutional, and geopolitical dynamics shaping EU expansion. Civil society leaders and journalists monitoring reform efforts in the region will find valuable insights on conditionality, benchmark design, and practical pathways toward credible integration.