About this book:

*Grand Strategy in the Middle East* examines the evolving regional order through the lens of competing interests among global superpowers (the U.S., Russia, and China) and assertive regional players (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, Egypt, and the Gulf micro-states). The book posits that the contemporary Middle East is no longer defined by American primacy but by a "pluralized" environment where states pursue strategic autonomy through "hedging"—cultivating multiple patrons and issue-based alignments rather than rigid blocs. This landscape is shaped by diversified instruments of power, including precision missiles, drone swarms, cyber warfare, and geoeconomic statecraft such as sanctions and infrastructure investments like China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The analysis disaggregates the region into interconnected "conflict systems"—the Levant, Gulf, Red Sea, and North Africa—linked by maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. It details how the internal political economies of these states, particularly the urgent need for economic diversification in the face of the global energy transition and climate stress, now drive foreign policy as much as traditional security dilemmas. While the book highlights the sophisticated "battle networks" and proxy warfare that define modern deterrence, it also identifies an undercurrent of pragmatic "cooperative security," where rivals engage in de-confliction and confidence-building measures to avoid catastrophic escalation.

The final section of the book utilizes strategic foresight to project two primary scenarios for the decade 2026–2036. The first, "Fragmented Multipolarity," envisions a period of competitive stabilization where great powers maintain a wary, "over-the-horizon" presence, leaving regional actors to manage a precarious balance marked by intermittent proxy crises. The second, "Concerted Security Architecture," explores a more optimistic path where a shared recognition of common threats—such as water scarcity and economic obsolescence—leads to institutionalized de-escalation and deeper regional economic integration. Ultimately, the book serves as a framework for decision-makers to navigate a region where the traditional rules of order are being rewritten by technological change and shifting global priorities.